Business 2010 Blog

Reversing the Lucifer Effect to make 2010 the safest World Cup ever

In a recent contribution to the 2010 Nation Branding Debate, titled “A branding bridge too far for a demoralized nation”, a senior Business Day analyst argued that South Africa is “a country in crisis”, faces “a political, institutional and social crisis of unprecedented proportions” where “retributive justice has become the norm … local government has become ineffective … and crime is rampant and getting worse”, concluding that “a branding exercise similar to Germany’s, with its concomitant successes, is simply not possible in SA”.

Whilst correct in pointing out South Africa’s current brand gap in delivering the national brand promise of being ‘Alive with Possibility’ (borne out by the fact that SA has dropped from 22^nd to 37^th place in the Nation Brand Index), the conclusion of dismissing 2010 as an opportunity to rebrand the country is missing the second dimension of nation branding, that is fostering social cohesion, which is a critical component in validating a country’s external reputation.  

The Social Dimension of Crime

At the recent seminar "Policing in South Africa: Key Issues and Developments", Temba Mathe of the National Secretariat for Safety and Security told delegates the fact that more than 70 percent of rapes and about 80 percent of murders happened among people who knew each other reinforced the importance of social crime-prevention initiatives: "Because crime is a social problem, [there] has to be a social solution involving more players than just the police."

Institute for Security Studies senior researcher Johan Burger concurred with Mathe, saying that the police were often expected to deliver on unrealistic expectations: "Something is clearly wrong in how we deal with our crime and the fact that we expect the police to deal with crime on our behalf."

It is becoming increasingly clear that a social cohesion deficit lies at the root of our current crime epidemic and that it is many times the low levels of self-esteem that compel ordinary people to resort to violence in an effort to assert themselves.

Reversing the Lucifer Effect

In his recent publication on “The Lucifer Effect: Understanding how Good People turn Evil”, Professor Zimbardo from Stanford University, having analysed the abuse of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Graib in 2003, asks the question ‘Who is responsible for creating and maintaining the conditions (that led to the horrific levels of abuse)?’ Zimbardo, who conducted an official investigation into the Abu Graib incidents, concludes that of the seven factors leading to the abuse of prisoners, only one was dispositional, i.e. personal failure, whilst the other six were situational, i.e. systemic problems that resulted in creating the volatile environment experienced. He recommends that rather than singling out the “bad apples”, as then US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, did, we should ask “What is to blame?” and analyze the behavioral context that resulted in producing “bad apples”, in other words the “bad barrel”.

Fixing Broken Windows

This is the question that drove the newly appointed New York City Police Commissioner, Bill Bratton, in 1994 to turn New York from the worst into the safest large city in the US – in just over two years and without an increase in his budget. Within his tenure, murders dropped 64.3 percent and total crimes fell by almost half. Gallup polls reported that public confidence in the NYPD jumped from 37% to 73%, whilst internal surveys showed job satisfaction in the police department reaching an all-time high.

The approach adopted by Bill Bratton in reversing New York’s crime epidemic, was based upon a social phenomenon known as Fixing Broken Windows. Broken Windows was the brainchild of criminologists James Q. Wilson and George Kelling who argued that crime is the inevitable result of disorder. If a window is broken and left unrepaired, people walking by will conclude that no one cares and no one is in charge. Soon, more windows will be broken, and the sense of anarchy will spread from the building to the street which it faces, sending a signal that anything goes. In a city, relatively minor problems like graffiti, public disorder, and aggressive panhandling, are all the equivalent of broken windows, invitations to more serious crimes.

Kelling was hired by the New York Transit Authority to put the Broken Windows theory into practice for the subway fleet, at a time when every one of the 6,000 cars was covered with graffiti - top to bottom, inside and out. Fare-beating was so commonplace that it was costing the city as much as $150 million in lost revenue annually, and there were about 15,000 felonies on the subway a year. 

Many subway advocates, at the time, told Kelling not to worry about graffiti, to focus on the larger questions of crime and subway reliability, and it seemed like reasonable advice. Worrying about graffiti at a time when the entire system was close to collapse seemed as pointless as scrubbing the decks of the Titanic as it headed toward the icebergs.

But Kelling insisted. "The graffiti was symbolic of the collapse of the system," he says. "When you looked at the process of rebuilding the organization and morale, you had to win the battle against graffiti. Without winning that battle, all the management reforms and physical changes just weren’t going to happen. We were about to put out new trains that were worth about ten million bucks apiece, and unless we did something to protect them, we knew just what would happen. They would last one day and then they would be vandalized." He made it a rule that there should be no retreat, that once a car was "reclaimed" it should never be allowed to be vandalized again. "We were religious about it."  

By restoring order train by train and enabling the community to reclaim a public space that was part of their daily lives, Kelling and Bratton managed to reduce subway crime dramatically and restore civic pride in this vital means of public transportation.

Civic Pride key to Crime Prevention

What are the broken windows in South Africa that need fixing in order to reclaim our public spaces and restore personal safety and security? According to the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), civic pride alone is capable of reducing key crime indices by up to 40% - if we are to afford each other the opportunity of depositing rather than withdrawing our personal significance accounts, whether it is the next time you are interacting with the petrol attendant or addressing your employees.

As the great Russian writer Alexandre Solzhenitsyn, a long-time prisoner under Stalin himself, put it, “the line between good and evil cuts through every human heart." Maybe we are all responsible for creating the conditions that have led to the current crime levels in South Africa, and maybe we are all capable of reversing these same conditions – one person at a time. Doing so, will certainly go a long way towards making 2010 the best world cup ever and delivering the country’s internal brand promise of ensuring “A Better Life for All”.

Happiness Key Factor in Rio's Olympic Triumph

When Brazil was awarded the rights for hosting the 2016 Olympic Games, analysts were astounded not so much by the fact that Rio de Janeiro came out on top, but that it won so convincingly. Everyone in Olympic circles had expected that the presence of Barack and Michelle Obama in Copenhagen would tilt the voting towards Chicago.

In the end, Obama was upstaged by the Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose impassioned speech to the IOC members won over a majority of the members. He was in tears when he realised the Games had been awarded to Brazil. As Da Silva said: “All those people who thought we had no ability to govern this country will now learn we can host the Olympics. The world has recognised that the time has come for Brazil.” Da Lula played heavily on the fact that the people of the hosting nation make all the difference to the success of the Games: “The opportunity is now to extend the Games to a new continent. It’s an opportunity for an Olympics in a tropical country for the first time, to feel the warmth of our people, the exuberance of our culture and the sensation of our joy.”

All four of the finalists – Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo – had the conditions to offer the necessary infrastructure and security, but Rio (whose nickname is "Cidade Maravilhosa" or Marvelous City) is "the happiest city in the world according to a survey by Forbes magazine," Rio’s Mayor Eduardo Paes said prior to the vote by the International Olympic Committee.

Ever since Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers appeared in the 1933 film Flying Down to Rio, the world has been fascinated with Rio de Janeiro. Popular perception of the city is infused with images of starry-eyed youngsters dancing into the dusk, backed by imposing mountains and dark sea.

That view has propelled Rio to the top of the list of the world's happiest cities. Famous for its annual Carnival festival, the second-largest metropolis in South America finished first among 50 cities in a recent survey conducted by market researcher Anholt GfK Custom Research North America.

"Brazil is associated with all these qualities of good humor and good living and Carnival," says Anholt. "Carnival is very important - it's the classic image that people have of Rio, and it's an image of happiness … Brand Brazil is packed with images which are consistently held by millions of consumers all over the world - ecstatic samba dancing at carnival time; the rainforests as endangered as they are exotic; sex, magic, beaches, sport, adventure, music, style, grace, joie de vivre … Brazil is the quintessential youth brand – it effortlessly elicits the range and type of associations in young people all over the world which brands like Nike or Pepsi would do almost anything to achieve.”

It is hardly surprising that Nike thought it worthwhile to invest over £100m over five years into sponsoring the Brazilian football team, literally buying a share in the equity of Brazil’s Passion Brand. In fact, the brand promise for 2016, “Live Your Passion”, (which is about to be launched in dramatic fashion at Rio’s Copacabana New Year Party) plays heavily on “the Brazilian peoples’ way of getting passionately involved in whatever they do”, according to Carlos Nuzman, the President of Rio’s 2016 Campaign.

Interestingly, two of Rio’s predecessors have made the top five happiest cities, the 2000 hosts Sydney at second spot, and the 1992 host city of Barcelona at third. In fact, it is the much vaunted ‘Barcelona effect’ that turned the once gloomy destination into a global attraction. Barcelona has the best reputation of all for thoughtful post-Olympic infrastructure planning: A derelict industrial waterfront where the Olympics took place was transformed into a popular esplanade lined with affordable housing, and subsequently a knowledge-industry hub for young creative talents in media, design and information technology.

The French historian Fernand Braudel wrote that "Happiness, whether in business or private life, leaves very little trace in history." But a perception of happiness leaves a strong trace on the balance sheets of cities that depend on conventions, tourism and an influx of talent.

Not only does happiness benefit destinations, but it equally holds rich returns in investment for organisations. Most recently, McDonalds SA won the much coveted ‘Best Company to work for’ Award by Deloitte and revealed that their employees’ happiness has been a key factor in recording record profits for the South African operation in the current financial year.

Importantly, the award of the 2016 Olympic hosting rights to Rio might spell opportunity for an African city, to bring the world’s biggest sporting event to the one continent that has never staged it. South Africa might very well be stimulated after the 2010 FIFA World Cup to put forward a city, possibly Cape Town or Durban, for hosting the biggest show on earth in 2020.

2010 a Time to make Love?

At the opening of the 2010 National Communication Partnership Conference this week, LOC Chairman Dr Irvin Khoza related a defining moment that he experienced at the 2006 FIFA World Cup in Germany. On his way to the stadium, the taxi driver remarked, “it is strange, but for the first time since I can remember, the Germans have really started to love each other”.

Dr Khoza shared this incident with the audience, to underline his point that South Africans should start improving their interpersonal relations with each other in the run-up to 2010, and look for the good in each other rather than engage in the continual search for finding fault in others.

So, how can brotherly (and sisterly) love be ignited amongst the people of Mzansi and what are the leverage points for converting the prevailing fear and mistrust into a newfound sense of a close-knit fraternity and a shared destiny?

Following Dr Khoza’s remarks about the need for improved internal relations, many commentators called for a comparison of SA’s psychometrical state of the nation with that of the previous hosts, Germany, around the 300 day countdown mark.

At this point in time in 2005, roughly six weeks after the Confederations Cup, most Germans felt anxious rather than elated at the prospects of hosting the world in the following year. Commented Germany’s leading political magazine, Der Spiegel: “The euphoria that had energized the country during the 2005 Confederations Cup had died without a whimper. Football was once a beacon of hope for Germany. The 2006 World Cup was supposed to boost the gross domestic product; an outstanding performance by the national team would fuel a national liftoff. Klinsmann was the public face of this hope.”

But things started going wrong in early 2006. First came the 4-1 defeat by Italy; then German clubs crashed out of European tournaments, followed by the eruption of a domestic match fixing scandal involving players and managers. A number of xenophobic attacks in East Germany prompted a former Government spokesperson to call for ‘no-go zones’, the Swedish ombudsman for equal opportunities called for a boycott of the World Cup (because he anticipated a rise in forced prostitution), and unemployment peaked at a post war record of 5 million plus.

Concluded the Spiegel: “The country seemed grumpy, timid, ugly. The World Cup, an experiment in mass merrymaking, was in danger of being ripped apart in a savage orgy of self mutilation and bellyaching.”

It was then that Chancellor Angela Merkel, Coach Jürgen Klinsmann and the grandees of German football convened for a sporting summit in mid-March 2006. At the top of their agenda: How to turn the World Cup into a frolicking, fun-filled fest. Looking back at what winning the 1954 World Cup had done for the beaten down German psyche just after the war, and how the ‘Miracle of Berne’ had become a catalyst for renewed self-confidence, they rallied behind Klinsmann’s rebranding program for the national team. Concluded Klinsmann: "Winning the tournament would give us the chance to show the world who we are. We have the opportunity to redefine Germany - to create a national brand." As a result, all of government and the 2006 stakeholders became deliberate and vocal spokespersons for Klinsmann’s previously much maligned reform program and his grand vision.

The result? When Germany beat Poland in their second group game, thereby qualifying for the knock-out stages of the tournament, the entire nation erupted into a state of collective euphoria and what the Spiegel termed ‘Partyotism’ – a new phenomenon of expressing their love for the nation in the most festive manner. On the 14 June 2006, at 22h53 when Oliver Neuville scored the winning 1-0 goal in extra-time, Germany had reached the tipping point.

Even Chancellor Angela Merkel, not known for charisma or outbursts of emotion, was swept up in the football frenzy, cheering, punching the air during matches and hugging coach Klinsmann and the World Cup's chief organiser, Franz Beckenbauer. "Germany's image abroad has definitely changed incredibly. I liked this inner, happy self-confidence a lot," she told RTL television. Merkel said she hoped the last four weeks had given the country the confidence and drive to tackle its problems - mass unemployment and runaway welfare costs. "We're a great country, we can do it, and we're admired by others," she said.

A different kind of boost, albeit not less significant to the national wellbeing, had tongues wagging at Germany’s kindergartens. It appears that the mix of sun, beer and excitement during the World Cup produced a massive hormone rush in German bedrooms. Nine months on, birth clinics across the country reported a much-needed baby boom – and many of the so-called World Cup babies were called after the national football heroes.

To make Dr Khoza’s greatest wish come true and generate the much needed internal love affair of Mzansi, what can you do to rally your troops behind the national team and show the world why Madiba has repeatedly called South Africa a “Nation of Champions”?